ASI Bulletin: Hotel California
Smoking, crypto, millionaire farewells, and toying with fission
Send any complaints to me, any praise to all your friends
IN THIS ASI E-BULLETIN:
Reports: Smoking; crypto; millionaire farewells; and toying with fission
Blogs: Advice to Mandy; self-sufficiency (against); and yet another public project fiasco
New videos: smoking harm reduction; printing money (against); and tariffs (against)
But first…
With Valentine's Day approaching, the Prime Minister wants to get closer to the EU. (Brexit is sounding more and more like Hotel California — you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.)
Some dates are doomed to failure, though: Elon Musk and USAID, Ed Miliband and Heathrow expansion, Rachel Reeves and economic growth. And one melange-a-troi that seems likely to go on and on is government MPs’ WhatsApp groups, newspaper headlines, and resignations.
President Trump says he won’t deport Prince Harry back to UK because he has troubles enough with Meghan. (Audible sounds of “Yessss!” emerging from the Palace.)
The Church of England has banned non-alcoholic wine in Communions. They must have a new PR firm advising them how to get people back in. (Tempted myself—ed.)
Though I digress…
EVENTS
Tonight’s Enlightenment Evening: former minister Lord Harrington will be speaking to us about how we can attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) into the UK.
This event is sold out- but we will be filming the talk and uploading to our Youtube Channel.
The Next Generation
Our TNGs are the biggest and brightest they've ever been. People are travelling from the far corners of the UK to meet new and like-minded free-marketeers, put the world to rights and make some friends in the process. More and more young professionals- not just from Westminster- are bringing their ambition and vision to our political discussions - The Next Generation is indeed alive and well.
If you want to keep the torch burning, just £250 would help us put on an event enabling 80-100 youngsters to meet like-minded peers and learn more about free market ideas.
This month we hosted Sam Bowman of Works in Progress (and ex-ASI) for an encouragingly upbeat talk about the UK’s prospects. Sure, it’s held back by planning controls, excessive regulations, high and complicated taxes. But we know how to fix all that.
In March, we’ll be welcoming Ruby Osman, a Policy Adviser and China expert at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. She’s one of the UK’s leading Pekingologists and has even interviewed Henry Kissinger! She’ll be talking about China’s posturing as the new advocate for free trade and economic globalisation and how the UK should respond.
INTERN AT THE ASI
Gap year internships: I won’t say that all our former gap year interns have gone on to get first class degrees and MPhils from Oxbridge, or become millionaires, ministers and celebrities in the news media, but it’s remarkable how many have. You too could work with the most exciting think-tank in Westminster, boss politicians around, and go on to great things. Why not look it over and apply? Skates on, though, deadline is 25th April.
The sooner you apply the better. Our policy is to interview and accept strong candidates we like as they emerge, and spaces are extremely limited, so all spots may be gone before the deadline.
Summer Internships: We offer short, two-week internships to university students and recent graduates who are interested in politics and economics. It’s an excellent way to learn how the policymaking process works (Or doesn’t—ed.) and learn more about the thinking that goes on around it. It’s a great first step into policy, law, business and finance. It’s very competitive, so get your application in before the 25th April deadline! As above, our policy is to interview candidates as they emerge- and spaces are limited!
And while we’re on careers, CityAm have asked if we could point out this job spec for a new economics reporter to join their team of business journalists based in the City of London newsroom. It involves developing new stories, doing interviews, and pitching in to the life of a busy newsroom. Hurry up though- the deadline is today!
NEW RESEARCH
19 Million Years of Life: The government’s proposed generational smoking ban—which it has picked up from, of all people, the Tories risks stalling the progress of harm reduction products and driving people back on the gaspers, often smuggled ones. They should look instead to Sweden, where only 4.5% of people smoke, thanks to snus, nicoting pouches and vapes.
Trump and the Implications for Digital Assets in the UK: Another catchy title, eh? But at least you get what it says on the tin. ASI’s Future Markets Policy Unit has teamed up with the Digital Economy Initiative to evaluate the new US administration’s avowedly pro-crypto stance. What does it mean for the UK’s financial services sector? And how can the UK stay ahead in the digital assets sector, in which it has been a world leader so far?
A million goodbyes: We’ve been tracking the number of millionaires who are leaving the country in the face of high and complex taxes and regulations on enterprising businesses (and our being nasty to non-doms)- and now we’ve come up with a startling statistic. The loss to the Treasury of all those millionaires who fled last year is equivalent to the tax paid by half a million regular taxpayers. Yes, that’s quite a hole to fill. Are you sure you are on the right track, Chancellor?
Fission impossible: The Prime Minister intends (I wish we could be as confident about his Energy Secretary’s intentions—ed.) to 'rip up rules to fire up nuclear power', reforming planning rules to build small modular reactors and 'put Britain back in the race for nuclear energy.' We've already outlined how it can do this in our report on nuclear power: allowing for fleets of reactors, rather than forcing developers to undergo a top-down bureaucratic approval process, and introducing mutual recognition of standards for modular plants.
POLICY & PARLIAMENT WINS
Non-doms: Rachel Reeves moved to adjust the Temporary Repatriation Facility, a three-year scheme designed to encourage ex-doms to return assets to the UK at a discounted tax rate, addressing some of the concerns raised in ASI's research, and paving the way for further reforms. This was announced on the same day we released our millionaires leaving research (What a coincidence!—ed.) Perhaps she also read our non-doms research which found that abolishing the non-dom regime could cost an eye-wetting £6.5 billion by 2035.
And of course our Millionaire Tracker was mentioned in a written question in parliament.
Indefinite Leave To Remain: Sam Bidwell’s ILR essay continues to shape Tory policy with Kemi Badenoch promising that migrants on work visas who claim benefits will be barred from settling indefinitely in the UK.
We’ve been supporting (Labour) commonsense on licensing in the shape of Andrew Ranger's Licencing Hours Extension Bill, Here's an op-ed on the topic from our own Sam Bidwell:
ON THE ASI SUPERBLOG
Award-winning analyst Miles Saltiel tells Lord Mandleson what he should be focusing on in his role as US ambassador—and how he can turn the UK’s notorious weakness against America into a mutually beneficial strength. Here is the first one in his ongoing series:
Adam Smith knew that you can’t be self-sufficient in everything. But for most of US history since 1789, the country has relied on tariffs with just that aim in mind. After a brief rest, tariffs are back. ASI Policy Director Maxwell Marlow reviews the history of US tariffs—and their cost, not just to importers but to Americans themselves.
How can a government pay three times the normal price for a couple of ferry ships, then bring them in at four times that already extravagant budget, seven years late, and working at half cock for the foreseeable? Turns out it’s quite easy. It’s government, after all.
And Alexander Bowen, one of our Next Generation Fellows, has written for the ASI’s ‘Deep Dives’ section on whether Welfare Migration exists, looking at a 2020 study from Denmark.
VIDEOS
We’ve got 3 new videos up on our growing YouTube channel, including…
Why the smoking ban is doomed to fail
Should we ban money printing? (Trick question?—ed.) Featuring Reform Party MP Rupert Lowe, who introduced a parliamentary bill to ban just that (without the express consent of parliament.
Plus, the problem with Trump’s tariffs and why protectionism is doomed to fail:
MEDIA
Our analysis on the tax implications of millionaires leaving was covered in the Telegraph (p2!), the Independent, the Express, the Daily Mail, Guido Fawkes, CityAm and the Spectator. It’s since been mentioned in the Telegraph a further 5 times and the Daily Mail and Express again.
Our Millionaire Tracker and Non Doms research continues to receive coverage- it’s been in the Telegraph several times and in Wealth Briefing.
You might have also seen our research on the State Pension mentioned on GB News, or the Telegraph, our Fission Impossible paper in CityAM, or Sam Bidwell’s essay on changing Independent Leave to Remain rules in the Sunday Times, the Spectator or GB News.
Jasper Ostle had his debut in CityAM praising Heathrow & Gatwick expansion, whilst Maxwell Marlow was in the Standard and on BBC Scotland to talk about the same topic.
Maxwell has also appeared on Times Radio to discuss America’s DOGE and on ITV news at 6 on Trump’s tariffs. He’s also been in the Express on Brexit Opportunities, in CapX on Reeves’ Growth Speech, in the Times and the I on whether we should increase and in the Express again on why we should scrap Inheritance Tax.
And I quote…
Well, President Trump might have a wider agenda in mind, but is he playing with fire on tariffs? I thought this warning from Allan Burris’s A Liberty Primer quite apposite:
“Tariffs, quotas and other import restrictions protect the business of the rich at the expense of high cost of living for the poor. Their intent is to deprive you of the right to choose, and force you to buy the high-priced inferior products of politically favoured companies."
Bye for now,
e
Eamonn Butler
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